A Chequer-Board of Nights and Days

Hope is a lovely thing, but when hope is used as a cover for weakness, it doesn't take long for others to catch on.

After having lived a charmed political existence, Barack Obama suddenly finds that others may have caught on to his political weaknesses:

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by eight points among Democratic primary voters nationwide, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. But fewer expect Obama to be the Democratic nominee than did one month ago, and fewer see him as the Democrat with the best chance of beating presumptive GOP nominee John McCain in November.

Obama leads Clinton 46 percent to 38 percent among Democrats who have either already voted in a primary contest or still plan to, with 14 percent saying they are undecided or don't know whom they support. The eight-point margin marks an increase from April 3rd, when Obama led Clinton by three points.

But a smaller percentage of Democratic primary voters now see Obama, who has been on the defensive following revelations of his controversial former pastor's statements and his leaked comments that some voters had become "bitter," as their party's likely nominee. Fifty-one percent now say they expect Obama to win the nomination, down from 69 percent on April 3rd, while thirty-four percent now expect Clinton to be the nominee, up from 21 percent a month ago.

And while Obama continues to have an advantage over Clinton when it comes to which candidate is seen as more electable, the gap has narrowed there as well. Today, 48 percent of Democratic primary voters think Obama has the best chance of defeating McCain in November, down 8 points from a month ago. Thirty-seven percent say Clinton is more likely to beat McCain.

If there is any good news for Obama, it is that this realization on the part of Democratic voters has likely come far too late to help Hillary Clinton. She cannot catch up to him in terms of pledged delegates and she does not appear to be winning superdelegates by the bushel either. The math still favors an Obama nomination.

But just as Clinton cannot win the nomination outright, neither can Obama. And even though a number of superdelegates are moving towards him, that movement may slow if they perceive any further signs that Obama possesses a glass jaw. Behind as Clinton is, she can still wreak havoc on the process and if there is power to be had, rest assured that she will.

And thus, this lumbering and clumsy primary continues. Not that I am complaining; this is The Greatest Show On Earth and I certainly do not want to see it end anytime soon.