A Chequer-Board of Nights and Days

I am glad to see that there is an agreement that will cause the North Koreans to close their nuclear reactor. Let's focus on that bit of good news first:

North Korea agreed today to close its main nuclear reactor in exchange for a package of food, fuel and other aid from the United States, China, South Korea and Russia. The breakthrough, which was announced by the Chinese government after intense negotiations and welcomed by the White House as a "very important first step", came four months after North Korea tested a nuclear bomb.

The partner nations agreed to provide roughly $400 million in various kinds of aid in return for the North starting a permanent disabling of its nuclear facilities and allowing inspectors into the country.

Perhaps equally important, the United States and Japan agreed to discuss normalizing relations with Pyongyang. The United States will begin the process of removing North Korea from its designation as a terror-sponsoring state and also on ending United States trade and financial sanctions.

In Washington, the White House spokesman, Tony Snow, said that the agreement was stronger than previous deals with North Korea because the United States was not the only other party.

"There is still a possibility of sanctions through the international community," Mr. Snow said. "And there is considerably more leverage on the North Koreans by virtue of the fact that you have the Chinese, the South Koreans, the Japanese and the Russians also involved here. They're answerable not merely to the United States, but in fact to their own neighbors who are significant stakeholders in this," he said.

All is not sweetness and light with this deal, however:

The agreement drew strong criticism from John Bolton, a former United States ambassador to the United Nations, who urged President Bush to reject it.

"I am very disturbed by this deal," Mr. Bolton told CNN. "It sends exactly the wrong signal to would-be proliferators around the world: 'If we hold out long enough, wear down the State Department negotiators, eventually you get rewarded,' in this case with massive shipments of heavy fuel oil for doing only partially what needs to be done."

I take the Bolton critique seriously, even as I believe that there may have been little else the Administration could have done in this circumstance. Even if the deal with the North Koreans turns out in the best fashion possible, Bolton has a point in saying that rogue states have a template in how to deal with the United States; seek nuclear technology, engage in protracted negotiations so as to have time to develop that technology and then accept a bribe in lieu of developing that technology--at least for the time being.

How do we break that cycle? I have no idea. Perhaps the best way to do it is to encourage programs like the Proliferation Security Initiative and seek to expand it. But I'm not sure that can be done quickly and in the near term. And I'm sure that Iran is watching how the negotiations with North Korea end/develop and adjusting its tactics accordingly.

In the meantime, something tells me that we aren't done with the North Korea issue just yet.