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The Upcoming Financial QuagmirePosted by Pejman Yousefzadeh on Wed Dec 05, 2007 at 03:15:04 PM EST
Regulation of the mortgage industry has suddenly become the cause du jour among the political class. Consider, for example, this article, which discusses Hillary Clinton's fire and brimstone condemnation of the mortgage industry and her solution to the subprime crisis:
Clinton repeated her call for a voluntary agreement that would call for a moratorium of at least 90 days on foreclosures of subprime, owner-occupied homes; a freeze on the monthly rate on subprime adjustable rate mortgages, with the freeze lasting at least five years or until the mortgages have been converted into affordable, fixed-rate loans; and an agreement by the industry to provide status reports on the number of mortgages it is modifying. Of course, the Bush Administration has gotten into the act as well:
The White House is working on a plan to freeze interest rates on certain subprime home loans, though it faces significant hurdles that could derail its implementation, according to industry executives and others familiar with the situation. Ah, but there are problems. Let us call the following the "Distorting The Market Is A Bad Idea--Example # 274,916,583" portion of this blog post:
Industry executives, market participants and several analysts said implementing any plan would be complicated and riddled with technical and political problems, including possibly encouraging otherwise stable borrowers to miss payments. "If you are a borrower in the group that gets left behind by this scheme, you have a set of perverse incentives to default in order to get the break. It has moral hazard written all over it," said Don Brownstein, chief executive of Structured Portfolio Management, a hedge fund. Pretty worrisome, eh? It gets worse:
There could also be political backlash if any final plan did not help the most strapped borrowers. Any plan that did not include such help could face opposition from prominent Democrats including Barney Frank, a representative from Massachusetts, and Charles Schumer, a senator from New York. Read that last quote again. As my RedState colleague, Jeff Emanuel, pointed out, "compelling" investors to go along with a particular financial solution is indicative of an entirely misguided mindset. And yet, it is a mindset that is particular to one side of the partisan divide. I do not lack sympathy for those who are under pressure thanks to the subprime crisis. Far from it. These people should talk to their lenders, many of whom are eager to help them with a solution. But the proposed bailout plans on both sides of the aisle have a whole host of problems attendant to them and market distortions are no way to address the subprime crisis. Quite the contrary--they would only serve to make a bad situation far, far worse. UPDATE: Stephen Green helps explain further why the Administration's approach could be such a bad idea.
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