A Chequer-Board of Nights and Days

I have argued in the past that the best thing for Iraq would be if it were divided and partitioned in a manner that would allow the region to avoid sectarian divisions and violence. It won't happen, of course; too many in the West remain wedded to the idea of a unitary Iraq and even those who recognize the artificiality of maintaining the terms of the Sykes-Picot Agreement will want to maintain a unitary Iraq if only to balance against Iran.

Of course, three separate states could work to balance against Iran as effectively as one and a Shi'ite state would not necessarily ally with Iran because--among other things--the doctrine of quietism that reigns among the Shi'ite clergy in Iraq is no longer accepted among the Iranian theological hierarchy and any alliance between a Shi'ite successor state to Iraq and Iran would be hampered by concerns in the Shi'ite successor state that Iran may exercise a too-powerful hold and influence over the nature and characteristics of theology and religion in the successor state and thus may do away with said successor state's traditions and religious philosophies. Other traditional security competition questions may apply as well; the mere existence of two Shi'ite states does not represent a commonality of interests and both Iran and a Shi'ite successor state will likely view one another as competitors for power and influence in the Persian Gulf region.

In any event, I am motivated to write about all of this because of Josh Trevino's informative post recommending the virtues of partition. While pluralism may have a greater chance in the Muslim world than Josh gives it credit for, it will be a difficult thing at best to continue to try to keep around a unitary Iraq and the region would prosper most effectively through a peaceful and coherent partition policy. Not even a dictator imbued with absolute power would have been able to keep the lid on the boiling internal sentiments in Iraq much longer, though no doubt, said dictator would try as a means of ensuring that as many people and as many square miles of land were under his control as possible.

We, of course, should seek to avoid said dictator's mistakes.