A Chequer-Board of Nights and Days

The US economy is set for a strong rebound in the first quarter of 2006, shaking off the hurricane-related weakness of the fourth quarter, a survey of business economists showed.

The survey of the National Association of Business Economists called for the economy to expand at a robust 4.5 percent pace in the current quarter -- the fastest since 2003 -- after a disappointing 1.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter.

 "The NABE panel sees the economy roaring back in early 2006 following the fourth quarter's tepid 1.1 percent growth," said Stuart Hoffman, NABE president and chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

"Our forecasters expect the economy to shake off the effects of last years hurricanes and surging oil price."

The report based on a survey of 53 economists projected the overall pace of growth for 2006 at 3.3 percent.

This should be strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to lift its base interest rate to 5.0 percent, the economists conclude.

The uneven course of growth cited in the story is perhaps something of a concern. However, it will likely not stop the Fed from raising rates. And if the Fed does stop raising them, the markets will probably take it as a sign that something is dreadfully wrong with the economy's capacity for growth.